Saturday, September 13, 2008

Expect More Turbulence (WITH UPDATES)

With Hurricane Ike unexpectedly cutting U.S. refining capacity by 20% and the Forex spot market being closed over the weekend, we are expecting a significant gap in price from where we closed on Friday versus where price will likely reopen on Monday morning. This gap could have a significant impact on our demo accounts. We also expect to see an "interesting" week of trading. This all means we will continue to hold off trading live money until the markets calm back into a range. As you know, we have been looking for an ideal opportunity to begin trading again and due to the turbulent market conditions over the last month we have as yet been unable to start.

Also, although we have been trading the last few weeks on our demo account, we would NOT have traded these conditions with live funds. We have kept the demo account running because we are needing to test the system's resilience to unstable market conditions and considering what has happened over the last month it has held up remarkably well.

UPDATE (Monday, 1:45 AM EST): I should also note, how wall street reacts to the Lehman Brothers financial situation should have a huge impact on currencies early this week. Before going live we will be waiting for the markets to price in a reaction to the Hurricane, the Lehman Brothers situation, and for the U.S. interest rate announcement to come out Tuesday at 2:15pm EST.

UPDATE (Monday, 2:15 AM EST): Well, the Frankfurt market opened about 15 minutes ago and we are seeing some pretty drastic price movements. To put the action so far in perspective, we have seen as much movement on average per pair in the last 15 minutes as we typically see in an entire day. This could be a very rocky day. Again, no real money trading until things calm down.