Monday, July 28, 2008
Full System Live Testing Update
I just got back from a week and a half in Panama to find the autotraders stopped running. We believe we have the problem fixed and will get them up and running again for tonight. So far for the month, the system is slightly above breakeven. If we were to take out the 2 days we traded when we normally wouldnt we would be up about 4% for the month.
Friday, July 18, 2008
Full System Live Testing Update
Well, not much to report other than that the system continues to trade. The results were mixed. It was a very flat week for the market and the system finished slightly better than breakeven. I wish I had more to say but again its just a matter of getting through until the end of the month so that the autotraders and the system have some time to prove themselves.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
July and August Results
We will not be posting results for either July or August. We hope to begin posting results again in September.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Full System Live Testing Update
At this point, our updates are pretty limited. We are just simply waiting for a few weeks of straight demo trading before we take our next step. We have been adding minor security features to the auto traders and preparing an off site server. Other than that, it is more a matter of watching and waiting. You can, of course, watch the system as it trades real time (click here). We are currently experiencing a minor drawdown which is typical and hope to soon see the market break out of it's lull and give us some (fake) profit. :-)
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Full System Live Testing Update
The auto traders continue to perform as they should. Now it is just a matter of letting the system run. We are currently in a drawdown period. I calculated that the "No Trade Days" lost about 2.7%. If we were to take that amount out of our current drawdown we are down nearly 4%. One of the questions that was unable to be answered through our backtesting is what is the typical drawdown across the system as a whole. We know what the drawdown of each individual pair has been but it is impossible to backtest the pairs collectively. I anticipate 10-15% will be the maximum drawdown of the system as a whole but we just don't know for sure.
While the auto traders trade we have been working on a few additions that will make them more stable and possibly more profitable. I will update you if any majors changes are made that drastically alter our existing backtest results.
While the auto traders trade we have been working on a few additions that will make them more stable and possibly more profitable. I will update you if any majors changes are made that drastically alter our existing backtest results.
Monday, July 7, 2008
Full System Live Testing Update
Another successful trading day. This time all strategies and auto traders functioned correctly and we made up most of the losses from trading two "no trade days"(NFP news day on Thursday and 4th of July Holiday on Friday). As of this post, we are still in 2 EUR/USD positions. One will be closing in about an hour and a half and the second could rollover to tomorrow. If you haven't yet downloaded, installed, and logged into the live demo - click here.
Friday, July 4, 2008
Full System Live Testing Update
The auto traders traded flawlessly last night. We saw no conflicts between the different strategy codes and every pair entered as they should. Unfortunately trading a 'no trade day' resulted in a 3% account drawdown but that was expected.
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Reminder - Trading 'No Trade' Day
Just a reminder that we will be demo trading the Fourth of July even though, under normal circumstances, we would not. The reason is, is that we are still testing how the individual Auto Traders react to one another when trading on the same platform. There is a high probability that the system as a whole will lose tonight/tomorrow. If the losses are so large that it drastically effects the accuracy of our results than we may consider starting the demo account back over one more time. For those in the United States we'd like to wish you all a happy and safe 4th of July!
Full System Live Testing Update
The entire system ran without problems today. Our rules would normally NOT have us trade today (release of non-farm payroll report). However, since a conflict between auto traders has been occurring over the last few days, I wanted to see if our fixes had actually worked - and they did! Of course, the profit results because we traded a 'no trade day' were not impressive drawing the demo account down 2%. But at this point it is more important to use everyday to improve the system than to log accurate trade performance.
Tomorrow is the fourth of July, another day we typically would not trade. But again, right now we are testing for more than just results and so we will trade the 4th just to continue checking for bugs in the execution of the auto traders.
Tomorrow is the fourth of July, another day we typically would not trade. But again, right now we are testing for more than just results and so we will trade the 4th just to continue checking for bugs in the execution of the auto traders.
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Conflict between Auto Traders
There seems to be some sort of conflict when all three auto traders are trying to trade simultaneously. Of course, it is 1:00am MST and so our programmer is asleep and won't be able to address the problem until tomorrow. That leaves us with only one trade for the entire day and all three auto traders unwilling to cooperate. It is rather frustrating but this is why we test, test, and retest. On the positive side, the trade that did enter was a winner.
UPDATE (1:40AM): Well, I've rebooted all three traders to see what effect that has. I am going to bed now and hopefully our computer report log will give us some sort of clue as to what conflict might be occurring. Either we'll wake up in the morning with everything having traded as planned, everything a mess, or no new trades at all. The suspense is killing me. :-)
UPDATE (8:30AM): After reseting everything, when I woke up this morning the 10-pair Intraday was running smooth. The EUR/USD Daily was running smooth. But the GBP/USD strategy was not. The conflict may be the fact that the code was created with only the GBP/USD in mind and since we have added the EUR/USD under the same parameters in may be causing the conflict. Our programmer is looking into it and hopefully will have it corrected for tonight.
UPDATE (1:40AM): Well, I've rebooted all three traders to see what effect that has. I am going to bed now and hopefully our computer report log will give us some sort of clue as to what conflict might be occurring. Either we'll wake up in the morning with everything having traded as planned, everything a mess, or no new trades at all. The suspense is killing me. :-)
UPDATE (8:30AM): After reseting everything, when I woke up this morning the 10-pair Intraday was running smooth. The EUR/USD Daily was running smooth. But the GBP/USD strategy was not. The conflict may be the fact that the code was created with only the GBP/USD in mind and since we have added the EUR/USD under the same parameters in may be causing the conflict. Our programmer is looking into it and hopefully will have it corrected for tonight.
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
June 2008 Hypothetical Results
Here are the results of how the full system would have performed had we used in June the settings we are currently using on our three strategies (10-Pair Intraday, EUR/USD Daily Strategy, and GBP/USD Strategy using same rules also for EUR/USD).
The new EUR/USD daily strategy performed abnormally well. Historically this strategy does not produce even half as much as these results. The Intraday strategy had a below-average month and both the GBP/USD and EUR/USD using the GBP/USD strategy ended the month about average.
Keep in mind this is not taking into account slippage, extreme market conditions, etc. Also our auto back tester is not able to test all pairs combined which means these results are not cumulatively compounded.
755 Trades were taken with a win percentage of about 40%.
The new EUR/USD daily strategy performed abnormally well. Historically this strategy does not produce even half as much as these results. The Intraday strategy had a below-average month and both the GBP/USD and EUR/USD using the GBP/USD strategy ended the month about average.
| Based on $100,000 account | |||
| Intraday Strategy | Profit | Profit % | Max Drawdown |
| EUR/USD | $5,264.01 | 5.26% | -$2,002.00 |
| GBP/USD | -$248.00 | -0.25% | -$3,674.00 |
| USD/CHF | $1,253.04 | 1.25% | -$1,471.58 |
| USD/JPY | -$1,149.12 | -1.15% | -$1,355.46 |
| EUR/GBP | -$1,001.02 | -1.00% | -$4,898.80 |
| EUR/CHF | -$2,451.92 | -2.45% | -$4,198.90 |
| EUR/JPY | $2,326.36 | 2.33% | -$2,755.08 |
| GBP/CHF | $402.30 | 0.40% | -$2,939.56 |
| GBP/JPY | $5,710.78 | 5.71% | -$5,787.68 |
| CHF/JPY | -$1,361.01 | -1.36% | -$2,163.22 |
| Total | $8,745.42 | 8.75% | ---------- |
| GBP/USD Strategy | Profit | Max Drawdown | |
| EUR/USD | $11,117.46 | 11.12% | -$6,715.00 |
| GBP/USD | $11,939.44 | 11.94% | -$7,328.00 |
| Total | $23,056.90 | 23.06% | ---------- |
| EUR/USD Daily Strategy | Profit | Max Drawdown | |
| EUR/USD | $32,237.28 | 32.24% | -$5,642.42 |
| Total | $32,237.28 | 32.24% | ---------- |
| Tradewinds System | Profit | ||
| Intraday Strategy | $8,745.42 | 8.75% | ---------- |
| GBP/USD Strategy | $23,056.90 | 23.06% | ---------- |
| EUR/USD Daily Strategy | $32,237.28 | 32.24% | ---------- |
| Total | $64,039.60 | 64.04% | ---------- |
Keep in mind this is not taking into account slippage, extreme market conditions, etc. Also our auto back tester is not able to test all pairs combined which means these results are not cumulatively compounded.
| Based on $100,000 account | |||
| Intraday Strategy | Wins | Losses | Win % |
| EUR/USD | 32 | 42 | 43.24% |
| GBP/USD | 34 | 76 | 30.91% |
| USD/CHF | 12 | 12 | 50.00% |
| USD/JPY | 2 | 14 | 12.50% |
| EUR/GBP | 24 | 56 | 30.00% |
| EUR/CHF | 10 | 24 | 29.41% |
| EUR/JPY | 16 | 20 | 44.44% |
| GBP/CHF | 24 | 40 | 37.50% |
| GBP/JPY | 32 | 42 | 43.24% |
| CHF/JPY | 8 | 24 | 25.00% |
| Total | 194 | 350 | 35.66% |
| GBP/USD Strategy | Wins | Losses | Win % |
| EUR/USD | 43 | 41 | 51.19% |
| GBP/USD | 50 | 55 | 47.62% |
| Total | 93 | 96 | 49.21% |
| EUR/USD Daily Strategy | Wins | Losses | Win % |
| EUR/USD | 18 | 4 | 81.82% |
| Total | 18 | 4 | 81.82% |
| Tradewinds System | Wins | Losses | Win % |
| Intraday Strategy | 194 | 350 | 35.66% |
| GBP/USD Strategy | 93 | 96 | 49.21% |
| EUR/USD Daily Strategy | 18 | 4 | 81.82% |
| Total | 305 | 450 | 40.40% |
755 Trades were taken with a win percentage of about 40%.
Full System Live Testing Update
I hope everyone was able to successfully download, install, and log in to the latest full demo now at Alpari-US. It took about 24 hours to get the autotrader back up and running on the new server and so only the GBP/JPY pair traded last night with a small 1/2% gain on the day. Tonight we should have full functionality (knock on wood). We currently have a EUR/USD trade open and the Intraday strategy starts in about 4 hours. The GBP/USD strategy begins at midnight. If you have trouble seeing the live demo contact your Tradewinds Rep.
2nd Quarter Results
Since our 2nd quarter has mainly been used to test the updates to the system and no live trading has occurred, we will not be posting results for this quarter.
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